What Is Happening Out There?

Last week I talked about ITR‘s prediction of a slowdown beginning early 2018 resulting in a cyclical recession by February of 2019. As with every recession, Brian Beaulieu of ITR recommends that CEOs use the slowdown as an opportunity to invest in their businesses.

Sound advice.

And, what better way to determine where to make these investments than to look outside our companies, and outside familiar places for opportunities.

So often, especially during challenging times, we tend to focus inward. We look at what we are doing effectively and what we aren’t. We look at what our teams are doing effectively and what they aren’t. We look at the current competition, who we know well. In short, we tend to focus on the SW part of the classic SWOT strategic planning exercise.

What if instead we focused on opportunities and threats? What if instead we looked outside?

  • to imagine who our future competitors might be
  • or watched our customers to see what their challenges are
  • or benchmarked others industries to see what we can learn

I wonder where “the big three” automakers would be today if they had looked outward instead of inward when they were the dominant players?

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Change is Coming..

Vistage economist, Alan Beaulieu, CEO of ITR, issued a simple warning in recent days “It’s been a good year, but there is a change coming,” he said. “Things are going to slow down.”

For those of us who follow ITR, we know the recession Beaulieu expects next year is one that he’s been forecasting for some time. To be clear, he is forecasting a normal cyclical downturn, not a deep recession.

Beaulieu expects the modestly improving economic climate will continue until February, but, he expects the U.S. industrial production index to peak in the second month of 2018. When that happens, look for things to taper off the rest of the year before turning more sharply downward in 2019.

And, here is Beulieu’s most important message, “When the downturn happens, smart company executives will use the slowdown to invest in your business, from equipment to ERP systems, from talent to technology.”

“Leadership is becoming more critical,” Beaulieu said. “Forget the noise. Lead your company with confidence. Don’t hunker down in the slowdown because that’s when it’s time to be aggressive.”

Hard advice to follow when margin and cash tighten. And, if we reflect back, we can all point to examples of leaders who followed Beaulieu’s advice during the great recession. Perhaps at the time, we questioned their wisdom, yet today we can see how they reaped the benefits during the last 10 years of prosperity.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Crawl? Walk? Run? Fly?

Hard to know when to walk, when to fly, when to run or even when to crawl. In this fast paced world we live in, our tendency is to default to run. And, my sense is, there is a place for each.

The challenge is to let things unfold at their own pace. Here are some questions I ask myself, when I remember to pause, to determine what pace fits best with the given situation:

  • If I am feeling a sense of urgency, what is driving it?
  • If I slow down the pace, what benefits/costs will result?
  • If I speed up the pace, what benefits/costs will result?
  • What will happen if I choose to observe rather than act for some time?

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Is it Time for a Different Approach to Strategic Planning?

This is the time of the year that most companies begin their strategic planning process.

While it’s fun to host and participate in an offsite, the end result sadly is often put on a shelf until next year.

Mostly the plan is a continuation of the last one, and mostly the plan calls for growth, usually growth that is based on internal expectations. And, unless the plan is translated into numbers and then becomes part of the budget, expectations are infrequently measured against actual outcome. No wonder the reality of strategic planning and the hope are often not aligned.

If you are interested in doing it differently this time… Chris Bradley of the McKinsey Consulting firm offers four practical suggestions to tackle the particular problem of bold forecasts and timid actions:

  1. Don’t hide the hairy back in the bottom drawer
  2. Calibrate your projected results to the outside view
  3. Build a momentum case
  4. Focus on moves, not promises

This short article Hockey Stick Dreams and Hairy Back Reality should be required reading for anyone who makes plans, or is charged with approving them.

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

With Diversity, Comes Diversity

What does this statement even mean?

Diverse leadership teams are hard…they are harder to build, are unlikely to come to consensus and are more likely to have conflict.

So, why bother? Because… they are harder to build, are unlikely to come to consensus and are more likely to have conflict, they make better decisions. Research studies prove this out.

Before we go any further, let’s start with some definitions; here’s mine:

  • Homogeneous groups have similar backgrounds, preferences and personality styles
  • Diverse groups contain individuals with a variety of backgrounds, preferences and styles
Notice, I didn’t mention gender, race, ethnicity, sexual preference. Why? Because categorizing frequently leads to stereotyping and while stereotyping might be a shortcut to achieving diversity, it may not. In fact, it may instead simply lead to stereotyping or…
In some cases, visible diversity as in gender and race, doesn’t create a diverse team. Where backgrounds are similar, even with visible diversity, a team is likely to behave as a homogeneous group.
What to do?
As with any critical decision, start by asking yourself the #1 leadership question: What outcome do I want?
Diversity is not always the best approach. Homogeneous groups are easier. Because of their similar backgrounds, preferences and styles they are likely to agree and move forward quickly.
  • If the goal is getting more of what you already have, then a homogeneous group may be the way to go.
  • If the goal is innovation and critical thinking, you are more likely to get there with a diverse group.

If you decide you want to build a diverse team, ask yourself the following questions to get started:

  • Do I know the backgrounds, preferences, and styles of current team members?
  • What actions do I need to take to learn this information about my current team?
  • What are the gaps in the current team?
  • Who in my organization could I add to the current team to increase the diversity?
  • If I am hiring team members, what qualities would add to the diversity?

If you would like to read more on the results of diverse groups, here is an article by two Kellogg professors to get you started: Better Decisions Through Diversity.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

 

 

How Do You Know When to Go With the Flow?

Option 1 _ Sometimes, the best thing to do is to go with the flow and let things play out.

Option 2 _ Sometimes, the best thing to do is to choose a desired outcome and lead others toward that outcome.

How do you decide?

In my experience, business owners have the tendency to choose Option 2. Owners get to decide the outcome they want and when passionate about that outcome, they choose to lead others toward it.

Similarly, professional CEOs, especially those leading PE owned companies, generally choose Option 2. They have a clear mission from the PE board, have incentives that are aligned with the board, and therefore choose to lead others toward their desired outcome, leaving as little to chance as possible.

On the other hand, my experience with executives is, it varies. And, since executives have both their careers to think about and their business to think about, they have two situations for which this choice must be made.

Some executives are willing, and actually prefer, to go with the flow, letting their owners or their boards, or their CEO decide the direction. This works best when the decision makers are in fact choosing Option 2, i.e. they are clear about the desired outcome.

  • But, what happens when the decision maker and those charged with implementing the decision are simply going with the flow? Is there even a direction, or simply a flow?
  • And, what happens when going with the flow provides financial rewards, but not psychic rewards. What then?

Everyone needs a purpose, a “why”. Some of us are comfortable deriving that purpose from others. Some of us need to set our own course.

The challenge for each of us is becoming clear which choice works for us and then putting ourselves into situations where we can be aligned with our choice.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

 

Not Asking Has a Price Tag

We Vistage chairs often talk about the importance of staying curious, of asking questions. Often as leaders we tell ourselves that the only “cost” of being directive vs. asking questions are soft costs. For example, we make assumptions that are wrong and have to start over when we learn we are headed in the wrong direction.

What about the hard costs of heading in the wrong direction?

What about when we as leaders, march into a new area, or start a new initiative, everyone follows, and we are headed in the wrong direction? Money is invested and then we have to start over. If only we had asked a few questions up front, we tell ourselves afterwards, the price tag associated with the failure might have been avoided.

This TED talk, titled simply, “If you want to help someone, shut up and listen!”, by Ernesto Sirolli, brings this point home in a global way. Ernesto Sirolli is a noted authority in the field of sustainable economic development and is the Founder of the Sirolli Institute, an international non-profit organization that teaches community leaders how to establish and maintain Enterprise Facilitation projects in their community.

What does this talk have to do with leadership? A lot.

What does it have to do with business? I’ll let you decide that.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Quiet

Quiet time, a luxury or a necessity? Call it meditation or simply call it quiet time. Taking time to clear the mind, we are told by our spiritual leaders, is the secret to awareness and peace. For years, perhaps centuries, we humans go to mediation classes, yogis, ashrams, the Dalai Lama, etc. in search of The Way.

More recently, our physicians have begun to tell us, meditation will lower your blood pressure, protect from cancer, manage pain and more. Mayo Clinic’s website contains this article on the health benefits of meditation.

And, in this powerful article, the author reminds us our businesses will benefit too. Because, when we think less, we think better.

Summer is a great time to experience quiet, to test this out and see if perhaps a few moments of quiet each day could add value to our lives.

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

What If That’s Not How I See it?

How often are we in situations where what we want and what others want are not aligned? We make assumptions daily, mostly about other people. These assumptions enable us to take shortcuts and at the same time, they cause disagreement that perhaps wasn’t there to begin with.

  • We assume a person attended or didn’t attend an event because…
  • We assume a person responded to us a certain way, because…
  • We assume a person took an action or didn’t take an action because…

What if instead of assuming, we paused and asked:

  • What is the reason you made this choice or took this action?
  • When your customer complains about “service”, do you probe to understand what is really going on?
  • When we see something, as the TSA reminds us, do we say something?
  • When an employee behaves a certain way, do we ask what is going on?

And when what we want seems far from what “they” want, what if we asked and explored the possibilities..

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

As We Search For What Matters, Must We Choose?

The Choice

The intellect of man is forced to choose
Perfection of the life, or of the work,
And if it take the second must refuse
A heavenly mansion, raging in the dark.
When all that story’s finished, what’s the news?
In luck or out the toil has left its mark:
That old perplexity an empty purse,
Or the day’s vanity, the night’s remorse. 

William Butler Yeats, 13 June 1865 – 28 January 1939

I came across this poem some time ago and was reminded of it in a recent discussion in my Vistage groups about “what matters”. Today we constantly talk about achieving balance; we perceive that it is the stress of modern times that creates this challenge. Yet this poem was written in the early 20th century. A reminder that this quest is the human condition, a daily challenge of choice. Here are the questions that come to mind:
  • Must we choose between success in life and work?
  • Or is it the search for perfection of one or the other that forces the choice? e.g. Albert Einstein was portrayed by his biographers as a poor husband and father. Was he, or was this the judgement of the biographers?
  • As we search for meaning in our lives, must we distinguish between what defines “life” and what defines “work” or is it possible to simply pursue what matters to us?
  • On this day devoted to mothers, what are you telling or demonstrating to your children about this question?

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain