Q3 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Results

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

The Q3 Vistage CEO Confidence Index was nearly equal to the second and third quarters of 2017, suggesting that optimism among small business CEOs has stabilized.

Q2 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

  • 52% of CEOs said the economy had recently improved, slightly below last quarter’s 55% but more than twice last year’s 25%.
  • 32% of CEOs expect the economy to post additional gains during the year ahead, down from 38% last quarter.
  • 62% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead.
  • 77% of CEOs expect increased revenues in the year ahead.
  • 62% of CEOs expect increased profits in the year ahead.
  • 47% of CEOs expect to increase investment expenditures in the next year.

Chicago Area Survey Highlights:

  • 28% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 32% nationally)
  • 38% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 47% nationally)
  • 64% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 77% nationally)
  • 54% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 62% nationally)
  • 50% of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 52% nationally)
  • 55% of CEOs expect rising profits in the year ahead (vs. 62% nationally)

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

 

Leadership Quote: The Concept of ‘Value Added’…

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

This month’s leadership quote:

“The concept of  ‘value added’ will drive more companies bankrupt than any other.”

—Sam Bowers

What???, you say. Value added is how we differentiate; value added is how we compete; it’s how we win. Yes and..

  • How much is it costing to add that extra value?
  • Are you giving away services that you can legitimately charge for?
  • When you assign a team to help a customer beyond your normal service, do you know how much it is costing you?
  • Does your price reflect the true value of your product and/or service?

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Perspective

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Last week I attended “Tribute to the Stars”, a Cara event celebrating students of achievement. The name Cara might be familiar to you, as each year on Giving Tuesday you hear from me asking you to join my match for this wonderful organization that supports people through the process of “getting their lives back”.

Every time I attend a Cara event or visit their morning motivations, I am reminded of the importance of perspective. Last week was no exception.

At this event, I was fortunate to be seated with several students, one of whom I had the opportunity to speak with for some time. His name is Kyle. Kyle started in the program a couple of months ago and I asked him what led him to Cara. He then told me that in order to continue receiving food stamps, he was required to enroll in a job training program. Kyle was fortunate to find Cara, because what Kyle realized he needed more than anything was recovery and confidence building. You see, Kyle is a Princeton and NYU graduate. When he was in his late 20’s and early 30’s, he was riding high in the investment world, too high it turns out, and now he is in recovery and starting over at 40.

I was moved by Kyle’s story, because I too come from the investment world. Had I not already become a leadership coach when he graduated NYU with his MBA, Kyle & I might have been colleagues or we might have met at an industry conference. In fact, I knew several “Kyle’s” when I worked in financial services.

We also heard from a woman named Nichelle, one of the two alumni receiving the tribute that morning. Like Kyle, Nichelle was riding high, and then she wasn’t. She had a good job and had lived in a beautiful home with her partner and her children. Nichelle shared with us how when things fell apart, she ended up living in a studio, a “box” as she called it, with her children, her partner and her partner’s kids; a total of 2 adults and 6 children in a studio. And then she asked us, “did you know that having a bedroom door is a privilege?” Today, Nichelle has her bedroom door and is well on her way to a stellar career once again, this time stronger and wiser.

Kyle and Nichelle’s stories have stayed with me. They remind me that life challenges are the great leveler. They can happen to all of us, no matter our background or education.

And that whatever we face, the good stuff and the challenges, it’s all a matter of perspective.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

What Is Happening Out There?

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Last week I talked about ITR‘s prediction of a slowdown beginning early 2018 resulting in a cyclical recession by February of 2019. As with every recession, Brian Beaulieu of ITR recommends that CEOs use the slowdown as an opportunity to invest in their businesses.

Sound advice.

And, what better way to determine where to make these investments than to look outside our companies, and outside familiar places for opportunities.

So often, especially during challenging times, we tend to focus inward. We look at what we are doing effectively and what we aren’t. We look at what our teams are doing effectively and what they aren’t. We look at the current competition, who we know well. In short, we tend to focus on the SW part of the classic SWOT strategic planning exercise.

What if instead we focused on opportunities and threats? What if instead we looked outside?

  • to imagine who our future competitors might be
  • or watched our customers to see what their challenges are
  • or benchmarked others industries to see what we can learn

I wonder where “the big three” automakers would be today if they had looked outward instead of inward when they were the dominant players?

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Change is Coming..

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Vistage economist, Alan Beaulieu, CEO of ITR, issued a simple warning in recent days “It’s been a good year, but there is a change coming,” he said. “Things are going to slow down.”

For those of us who follow ITR, we know the recession Beaulieu expects next year is one that he’s been forecasting for some time. To be clear, he is forecasting a normal cyclical downturn, not a deep recession.

Beaulieu expects the modestly improving economic climate will continue until February, but, he expects the U.S. industrial production index to peak in the second month of 2018. When that happens, look for things to taper off the rest of the year before turning more sharply downward in 2019.

And, here is Beulieu’s most important message, “When the downturn happens, smart company executives will use the slowdown to invest in your business, from equipment to ERP systems, from talent to technology.”

“Leadership is becoming more critical,” Beaulieu said. “Forget the noise. Lead your company with confidence. Don’t hunker down in the slowdown because that’s when it’s time to be aggressive.”

Hard advice to follow when margin and cash tighten. And, if we reflect back, we can all point to examples of leaders who followed Beaulieu’s advice during the great recession. Perhaps at the time, we questioned their wisdom, yet today we can see how they reaped the benefits during the last 10 years of prosperity.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Crawl? Walk? Run? Fly?

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Hard to know when to walk, when to fly, when to run or even when to crawl. In this fast paced world we live in, our tendency is to default to run. And, my sense is, there is a place for each.

The challenge is to let things unfold at their own pace. Here are some questions I ask myself, when I remember to pause, to determine what pace fits best with the given situation:

  • If I am feeling a sense of urgency, what is driving it?
  • If I slow down the pace, what benefits/costs will result?
  • If I speed up the pace, what benefits/costs will result?
  • What will happen if I choose to observe rather than act for some time?

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

What is a Big Deal to Some, Leaves Others Scratching Their Heads

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

In this increasingly sensitized world we live in, we find ourselves in a place of wondering. Wondering, how what we say will be interpreted.

And on the receiving end, we may be offended by comments from others and wonder at a minimum, how could this person have been so insensitive.

Layer on to this, differences in cultures and while some may hear a comment as a big deal, the sender may be left scratching their head. For me the solution lies in dialogue and seeking first to understand. Understand what others are sensitive to and what life experience may have led them to feel as they do and understand why others may be left scratching their heads.

Sometimes, it seems so obvious, and yet it isn’t. By way example, Trevor Noah shares this story in his recent autobiography.

According to Noah, in South Africa, where he is from, children are taught that Hitler was a powerful man, the atrocities he committed are left out of the history lesson. He goes on to say, black South Africans often name their children after “great leaders”, emphasizing that great does not necessarily mean good. With this background in mind, Noah shares a story of a friend of his named Hitler. Yes, that is his given name, not a nickname.

As young adults, Trevor and Hitler are entertainers, Trevor is a DJ and Hitler is a dancer. The two of them are invited to perform at a school in a white neighborhood that turns out to also be a Jewish neighborhood. When Trevor introduces Hitler to the stage to dance, the room falls silent. Trevor doesn’t understand why and carries on with his spiel using Hitler’s name over and over.

Finally a teacher comes on stage and demands they leave. An argument ensures, the teacher is horrified that “you people” had the indecency to come here. Trevor hears “you people” as black people, and both are horrified and offended. Trevor and Hitler leave and it isn’t until years later when Trevor travels outside of South Africa that he understands what happened that day.

When I read this, I was struck by the absurdity and was reminded that we must always assume positive intent, hard to do, and so important especially today.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Progress or Apocalypse?

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Every generation has its world changing vs. world destroying technology.

  • In the 1800’s, it was the train. People genuinely believed that going that quickly would kill you in gruesome ways, such as your body melting.
  • In the 1960’s, we were told getting too close to a television or a microwave oven would give us cancer. More recently this same concern has arisen about mobile phones.
  • In the 1990’s, when Dolly the sheep was cloned, we became convinced that human cloning was months away.

The new battle is over Artificial Intelligence. Will it change the world as Mark Zuckerberg believes or will it destroy the world as Elon Musk believes?

As with previous inventions, AI will offer opportunities we can only dream of today. At the same time, prudence and regulation will be required as Musk suggests.

One thing that is certain, no matter who believes what or what the dangers are, AI is happening. And, those who figure out how to enhance their businesses by using AI, will be the beneficiaries.

For further reading/viewing on this topic…

We need to shift the conversation around AI before Elon Musk dooms us all

Don’t fear intelligent machines. Work with them

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Is it Time for a Different Approach to Strategic Planning?

by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

This is the time of the year that most companies begin their strategic planning process.

While it’s fun to host and participate in an offsite, the end result sadly is often put on a shelf until next year.

Mostly the plan is a continuation of the last one, and mostly the plan calls for growth, usually growth that is based on internal expectations. And, unless the plan is translated into numbers and then becomes part of the budget, expectations are infrequently measured against actual outcome. No wonder the reality of strategic planning and the hope are often not aligned.

If you are interested in doing it differently this time… Chris Bradley of the McKinsey Consulting firm offers four practical suggestions to tackle the particular problem of bold forecasts and timid actions:

  1. Don’t hide the hairy back in the bottom drawer
  2. Calibrate your projected results to the outside view
  3. Build a momentum case
  4. Focus on moves, not promises

This short article Hockey Stick Dreams and Hairy Back Reality should be required reading for anyone who makes plans, or is charged with approving them.

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain