Confidence among CEOs reached its highest level in ten years in the Q4 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey. The gain
in the closing quarter of 2014 was largely due to more favorable assessments of the current state of the economy as well as more favorable prospects for economic growth during the year ahead. The Vistage Confidence Index was 107.5 in the 4th quarter of 2014, up from 103.4 in the 3rd quarter and 101.5 in last year’s 4th quarter, and the highest level since 109.8 was recorded in the 1st quarter of 2005. The data indicate that most firms believe the economy has made substantial progress and will continue to grow in 2015.
Below are some key highlights from the Q4 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
63% of CEOs said the economy has improved in the past year–the highest since the Q4 2004 survey.
49% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the next year, up from 38% in last quarter’s survey.
62% of CEOs anticipated expanding their workforce in the year ahead, the highest level since 64% was recorded in Q1 2006.
77% of all CEOs expected their revenues to increase in the year ahead, the highest level since 2006.
62% of CEOs expected profits to increase in the year ahead.
Confidence among CEOs reached its highest level in two years, finally achieving a lift-off from its favorable holding pattern in the last three quarters. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 103.4 in the 3rd quarter 2014 survey, up from 101.0 in the 2nd quarter and 97.8 in last year’s 3rd quarter, and the highest level since 105.1 was recorded in the 1st quarter of 2012. There is no greater indication of confidence in future prospects than a firm’s willingness to increase their fixed investment spending and to expand their workforce. On both counts, firms reported the most expansive plans since 2006.
Below are some key highlights from the Q3 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
75% of CEOs anticipated revenue gains over the next 12 months. Only 4% anticipated declines in their revenues, the lowest ever recorded.
52% of CEOs reported an improving economy, up from 50% one quarter ago and 46% one year ago.
59% of CEOs anticipated increased profits in the next year, just above last quarter’s 56% and above last year’s 54%.
58% of CEOs planned to increased their workforce, while just 4% planned reductions.
CEOs in the latest Vistage survey maintained their economic optimism at the same high level as in late 2013, despite the negative impact from the harsh winter. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 101.3 in the 1st quarter 2014 survey, virtually identical to the 101.5 in the 4th quarter of 2013, but well above the 96.6 in last year’s 1st quarter. The past two surveys set the highest average six-month level of confidence in three years. The harsh winter was reflected in more negative evaluations of current economic conditions, but firms reported increases in employment and investment intentions compared to either last quarter and last year.
Below are some key highlights from the Q1 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
58% of CEOs plan on increasing the number of employees in the years ahead, the highest level recorded since the start of 2007.
76% of all CEOs reporting using management training and leadership development programs, with 47% of all CEOs intending to increase their investment in such training.anticipated higher sales revenues in the next year.
56% of CEOs provide retirement savings programs to eligible employees.
74% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the next year.
CEOs in the Q4 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey held more optimistic economic expectations than at any other time in nearly two years. The largest 4th quarter gains were in CEOs’ evaluations of the overall economy, although revenue and profit expectations posted healthy advances as well. The Vistage Confidence Index was 101.5 in the 4th quarter of 2013, up from 97.8 in the prior quarter and well above the 87.0 recorded in last year’s 4th quarter.
Below are some key highlights from the Q4 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
52% of CEOs reported the economy had recently improved
76% of all CEOs anticipated higher sales revenues in the next year
56% of CEOs planned on expanding their payrolls during the year ahead
11% of CEOs reported that finding qualified employees was an easy task
CEOs held more optimistic expectations for gains by their
own firms in the Q3 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index,
even though they held less favorable views about the overall economic environment. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 97.8 in the 3rd quarter 2013 survey, just above the 96.7 in the 2nd quarter survey but substantially above the 89.0 recorded in last year’s 3rd quarter.
Below are some key highlights from the Q3 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
54% of all CEOs expected their firm’s profitability to improve. This is the highest figure recorded since the start of 2012.
71% of all CEOs anticipated higher sales revenues, up from 68% last quarter and 66% a year ago.
40% of CEOs said a proposal to raise the federal minimum wage to $9 or $10 an hour would have a negative impact on the growth of their business.
53% of all CEOs said the minimum wage hike would not have a significant impact on growth, perhaps due to the higher wages already paid to their employees.
68% of CEOs said the U.S. debt burden of $16.7 trillion has an impact on their business growth.
73% of CEOs believe that Congress must enact a dollar of spending cuts for every dollar used to increase the debt ceiling
CEOs held optimistic views about the overall economy as well as for their own firms in the Q2 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index. While there was a slight shift in their assessments of the economy, how CEOs viewed prospects for their own firms have been remarkably stable since the start of the year.
The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 96.7 in the 2nd quarter 2013 survey, virtually unchanged from the 96.6 in the 1st quarter, and above the 92.8 in last year’s 2nd quarter.
Below are some key highlights from the Q2 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
62% of CEOs see rising home prices as a positive sign of overall improvement in the economy.
30% of CEOs allow their staff to work from home at least one day a week.
53% of CEOs believe economic conditions in the U.S. have improved compared with a year ago, while only 33% believe conditions will improve in the next year.
More than 1,500 Vistage members surveyed in the Q1 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index reported an improved economy and brighter prospects for their own firms despite recent cutbacks in federal spending.
Similarly, small business owners who took the March WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Survey reported growing strength in the overall economy and have become increasingly confident that their firms would continue to benefit from the ongoing economic expansion. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 104 in the March 2013 survey, up from 101.4 in February, reaching the highest level recorded since the survey began last June.
Below are some key highlights from the Q1 2013 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
49% of CEOs think that economic conditions have improved compared with a year ago, up from 35% in Q4 2012.
68% of CEOs anticipate their firm’s sales revenues will increase in the next 12 months.
Just 11% of CEOs found it easy to find people with the right skills to drive their business growth, while 75% found it difficult to find qualified talent.
16% of CEOs believe the sequester will adversely impact their business.
82% of CEOs expect U.S. fiscal uncertainty will continue throughout the year.
More than 1600 Vistage members surveyed in the Q4 Vistage CEO Confidence Index reported a continued slowdown in the pace of economic growth and anticipated overall economic conditions would remain subdued in the first half of 2013.
On the other hand, optimism among small business owners who took the WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Survey reversed last month’s decline as renewed economic growth offset concerns about political and economic uncertainty.
Below are some key highlights from the Q4 2012 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):
63% of CEOs anticipated revenue growth during the year ahead in the fourth quarter survey, down from 73% last year.
49% of CEOs expected increased profits, down from 52% last quarter and 55% last year.
35% of CEOs at year end reported improving economic conditions, down from 60% at the start of 2012.
Combined 86% of CEOs said higher sales, new orders, and an improving economy were the most important influences on increasing the likelihood of hiring new employees.
Planned hiring fell to 45% in the fourth quarter of 2012, down from 55% in the fourth quarter of 2011.
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