Q3 2020 Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Confidence Rebounds

Signs of life in the economy and an increase of business activity has led to an increase in confidence of small and midsize business CEOs. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index rebounded to 82.8 Q3 2020; while not at peak recovery, this is just 2.6% below Q3 2019. While all factors that comprise the Index improved from last quarter, the biggest driver of the rebound is decreasing pessimism about the future U.S. economy. September’s survey found that 83% of CEOs expect the economy to worsen in the year ahead, a 10-point improvement from 93% last quarter. The other factors that contributed to the rebound from last quarter include: 32.5% improvements in revenue expectations29.2% improvement in profitability expectations28.3% increase in investment plans, largely driven by a significant decline in contraction25.4% improvement in workforce plans10.1% improvement in expectations for the U.S. economy To Learn More, Click On These Downloads: Q3 2020 CEO Confidence Index reportQ3 2020 CEO Confidence Index flash reportQ3 2020 CEO Confidence Index infographic About the Vistage...
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Q2 2020 Vistage survey: CEO confidence plummets in pandemic-induced recession

While the full impact of the economic shutdown occurred in April and May, the latest Vistage CEO Confidence Index data still reveals the devastating effects of the pandemic on small and midsize businesses (SMBs). The Vistage CEO Confidence Index plummeted to 65.5 in Q2 2020; there have only been two other times in the history of the survey that the Index was recorded so low. While every factor that comprises the Index dropped from last quarter, not surprisingly, overwhelmingly the biggest decline was CEO sentiment about current economic conditions in the U.S: 93% of CEOs report that the economy recently worsened. In comparison, just 25% believe that the economy will continue to worsen in the next 12 months which is an indicator that CEOs feel the economic impact has reached the bottom. As a result of the shutdown, 80% of SMBs reported some level of revenue declines; 17% report declines of 10% or less. Revenue projections are the lowest they have been...
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Q1 2020 Vistage CEO Confidence Index

Rather than sharing the report itself this quarter, I thought it would be more useful to share Joe Galvin, Vistage Chief Research Officer, interpretation and perspective as follows. There will not be a “new normal” on the other side of the COVID-19 crisis. When business activity picks up and the world begins to spin again, people and businesses will engage in a “new reality” that will not resemble what we knew to be normal. We will individually and organizationally engage in new norms defined by fundamentally different societal changes and business dynamics that emerged in the pandemic. At some date in the not too distant future, there will be a total business reboot — CEOs will be resetting their business in terms of employees, customers and financials — to a new, post COVID-19 level. From that starting point, we will begin to rebuild and grow through the recovery into this new reality. The transition begins when the current quarantine level of essential services...
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Q4 2019 Vistage CEO Confidence Index

Optimism Recovers MidYear Losses Confidence among CEOs in the Q4 2019 survey regained the losses in the prior two quarters to end the year at the same favorable level as at the beginning of 2019. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 91.5 in Q4 2019, up 7.7% from the prior quarter and nearly equal to the first quarter’s 91.6. The Index is still below the 95.4 recorded in Q4 2018, and the recent peak of 110.3 at the close of 2017. The steep declines occurred from year-end 2017 to year-end 2018, and the Index reached its recent low in Q3 2019. While this rebound is small, it points toward the expectation that the expansion will continue during 2020, even if at a slower pace. The anticipation of slower economic growth has continued to temper revenue and profit expectations as well as planned expansions in fixed investments and employment. Those declines were marginal this year, and the latest data regained a good bit...
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Q2 2019 Vistage-Chicago Confidence Index – Chicago More Pessimistic

Chicago Area Survey Highlights are below. Click here for more detail by industry and for a comparison to 2018. Economy 17%of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 31% nationally) 10% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 13% nationally) Prospects 53% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 64% nationally) 45% of CEOs expect rising profits in the year ahead (vs. 54% nationally) Expansion 31% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 40% nationally) 40%of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 56% nationally) © 2019 Vistage Worldwide, Inc. Elisa K Spain http://elisaspain.com/leadershipcoach/ Are You a CEO or President of a Privately Held Business? If you are also a lifetime learner and want to learn more about my Vistage Group, click http://elisaspain.com/impact/ ...
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Q1 2018 Confidence Index: CEO Confidence Index Slips in 2018

The Q1 Vistage CEO Confidence Index - The confidence of CEOs from small and midsize businesses (SMBs) has slipped in the past quarter but remains high, according to new data from Vistage. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index measured 105.8 in Q1 2018. By comparison, the index was 110.3 last quarter (Q4 2017) and 106.8 one year ago (Q1 2017). The Q1 2018 survey had 1,712 respondents. To calculate the index, researchers account for factors including CEO opinions on current economic conditions, expected economic conditions, expected changes in employment, planned fixed investments, expected revenue growth and expected profit growth. The index has a strong track record of predicting GDP growth. In his analysis of the results, Dr. Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan expressed a positive outlook. “Although the Vistage CEO Confidence Index retreated from the decade high recorded at year-end 2017, it still remains quite favorable,” he said. “The decline in confidence was mainly due to a moderation in the pace of...
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Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Hiring Is A Top Concern in Q2 2014

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Hiring Is A Top Concern in Q2 2014

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available. The latest Vistage survey found that CEOs continued to feel confident about today’s economy, as the Vistage CEO Confidence Index was virtually unchanged from the levels recorded in the prior two quarters. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 101.0 in the 2nd quarter 2014 survey, nearly identical with the 101.3 in the 1st quarter and the 101.5 in the 4th quarter of 2013. This was the best three-quarter performance since 2005. The constancy of economic optimism is all the more surprising given the drop in GDP during the 1st quarter, indicating that CEOs discounted last quarter’s decline as an aberration due to the harsh winter. Below are some key highlights from the Q2 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed): 73% of CEOs expect increased revenues over the next 12 months. 57% of CEOs planned on expanding their payrolls, just below last quarter's 58%, which was the highest level since the start of 2007. 30% of CEOs report...
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