Q1 2018 Confidence Index: CEO Confidence Index Slips in 2018

The Q1 Vistage CEO Confidence Index – The confidence of CEOs from small and midsize businesses (SMBs) has slipped in the past quarter but remains high, according to new data from Vistage.

The Vistage CEO Confidence Index measured 105.8 in Q1 2018. By comparison, the index was 110.3 last quarter (Q4 2017) and 106.8 one year ago (Q1 2017). The Q1 2018 survey had 1,712 respondents.

To calculate the index, researchers account for factors including CEO opinions on current economic conditions, expected economic conditions, expected changes in employment, planned fixed investments, expected revenue growth and expected profit growth. The index has a strong track record of predicting GDP growth.

In his analysis of the results, Dr. Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan expressed a positive outlook. “Although the Vistage CEO Confidence Index retreated from the decade high recorded at year-end 2017, it still remains quite favorable,” he said. “The decline in confidence was mainly due to a moderation in the pace of growth expected for the national economy during the year ahead.”

 

Q1 2018 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

  • 62% of CEOs said the economy had recently improved, a decline from last quarter’s 66%.
  • 35% of CEOs expected the economy to post additional gains during the year ahead, down 10 points from 45% last quarter.
  • 64% of CEOs planned to expand their workforce in the year ahead.
  • 79% of CEOs expected increased revenues in the year ahead.
  • 66% of CEOs expected increased profits in the year ahead.
  • 54% of CEOs expect to increase investment expenditures in the next year.

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Elisa K. Spain