Vistage CEO Confidence Index Q3: Optimism Inches Upward

Following six consecutive quarterly declines in confidence, CEOs finally recorded a small uptick in how they viewed prospects for the domestic economy as well as their own firm’s prospects. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index stood at 91.4 in the 3rd quarter 2016 survey, up from the three year low of 88.0 in the 2nd quarter, but still shy of the 96.3 recorded in last year’s 3rd quarter survey.

Robust gains in consumer expenditures were reflected in improved sales revenues and profits as well as planned increases in hiring. Uncertainty about future economic policies has made firms more cautious about investment expenditures, although they have not hesitated to add employees to take advantage of relatively strong consumer spending. Indeed, one-third of CEOs reported that finding, hiring, and training employees was their most significant challenge, mentioned twice as frequently as any other issue.

Below are some key highlights from the Q3 2016 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 25% of CEOs thought that the economy had improved during the past year, well below the 10-year peak of 63% recorded at the close of 2014.
  • 39% of CEOs plan to increase their investment expenditures in the next year, the fewest firms in more than 3 years.
  • 54% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year.
  • 69% of CEOs expect increased revenues in the year ahead, and 54% expect increased profits.
  • 47% of CEOs say the new overtime pay rules that take effect at the start of December will impact their employees.
  • 70% of employees work remotely, although most of them for less than 25% of their work time.

For more details Vistage Confidence Index.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index For Q2 2016: CEO Optimism In The Economy Declined Across The Board

Small business owners reveal that hiring and retaining talent is the most significant business challenge, according to a quarterly survey by Vistage Worldwide.

Vistage, a global organization, which assembles and facilitates private advisory boards for CEOs, conducts a quarterly survey covering a variety of small business topics. More than one-third of the 1,300 respondents cite staffing as the most significant issue they are currently facing, including identifying qualified candidates, hiring, retaining valuable staff members, and training. Additionally, CEOs note that their companies’ biggest barrier to innovation is talent, pointing to a common theme, and the importance of having a talent management & acquisition strategy in place.

Below are some key highlights from the Q2 2016 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 83 percent note that their team is made up of multiple generations – college interns through employees nearing retirement. And half of respondents are planning to hire recent college grads.
  • Due to the influx of millennial workers, nearly two-thirds of companies have adapted their management style in the past five years, and 57 percent of respondents now offer different benefit packages or perks to attract young talent.
  • Although 82 percent of CEOs conduct performance reviews of their employees, 60 percent of CEOs do not have a system in place for a self-review within their company.
  • The biggest barrier to innovation for 30 percent of small business CEOs is finding employees with the right talent and skills.
  • 83% of CEOs encourage all their employees to use their vacation days, although about half expect employees to check and respond to email while on vacation.

 

For more details Vistage Confidence Index.

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: CEO Optimism Declines in Q1 2016 – At Lowest Level In 3 Years

CEOs expressed greater concerns about the outlook for the domestic economy but remained upbeat about their own firm’s prospects in the Q1 2016 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 92.3 in the 1st quarter 2016 survey, down from 95.5 in the 4th quarter, and significantly below last year’s 105.8. Despite continuing economic and political uncertainty, more CEOs reported that finding, hiring, and retaining staff is the most significant business challenge they now face. With a tighter labor market, higher wages and benefits to secure key personnel may be needed. Given the still weak global economy as well as the sharply different economic policies favored by the presidential candidates, smaller firms have remained the engine of economic growth.

Below are some key highlights from the Q1 2016 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

54% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead.

32% of CEOs said the single most important issue they faced was finding, training, and retaining employees.

41% of CEOs plan to increase spending in new plant and equipment, the lowest level in three years.

70% of CEOs expect increased revenues in the year ahead, and 55% of CEOs expect increased profits.

41% of CEOs said they do not feel that they are prepared for a cyber-attack.

For more details Vistage Confidence Index.

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Overall Optimism Slips In Q4 2015

 

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available.

A Look Back and 4 Musts for Business Leaders in 2016:

ci-q415CEOs expressed somewhat greater concerns about the outlook
for the domestic economy but remained upbeat about their own
firm’s prospects in the Q4 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index
Survey. Overall, the data does not indicate that confidence is on
a downward slide but is simply moving sideways at high levels.
The well-worn pattern of uneven economic growth has produced
periods of growing optimism followed by the realization that the
economy will not deviate from the more modest growth rates
established since the Great Recession.

The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 95.5 in the Q4 2015 survey,
just below last quarter’s 96.3 and well below last year’s 107.5.
Importantly, firms were slightly more optimistic about revenue and
profit growth over the past few quarters, and more than half of all
firms planned to expand their payrolls. These data indicate that
firms still anticipate continued growth in their businesses. Indeed,
the most significant challenge now faced by firms is finding, hiring,
training, and retaining staff, reported by 35% of all firms, mentioned
more than twice as frequently as any other issue facing their firms.
With a tighter labor market, these concerns will inevitably mean
higher wages and benefits to secure key personnel.

Below are some key highlights from the Q4 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

36% of CEOs said the economy has improved compared to a year ago, down from 63% in last year’s 4th quarter and the worst assessment
of current economic conditions in three years.

25% of CEOs expected gains in the pace of economic growth during the year ahead, the worst outlook in four years.

55% of CEOs planned to expand their workforce in the year ahead.

71% of CEOs expected increased revenue gains in the year ahead. 58% of CEOs expect increased profits.

 

 

 

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Optimism Tempered in Q3 2015

 

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available.Q3 2015 Conf Index

Vistage CEOs expressed somewhat greater concerns about the outlook for the domestic economy largely due to uncertainties about international conditions, volatile and declining stock prices and the much debated Fed liftoff in interest rates. Despite these concerns, CEOs continued to be more optimistic about prospects for their own firms. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 96.3 in the 3rd quarter 2015 survey, down from 99.0 in the 2nd quarter and last year’s 103.4. The cumulative gains that could have been anticipated during long expansions have not occurred.

 

While the recent slide in confidence is of concern, the data thus far indicate that most firms now expect a continued slow pace of economic growth. Revenue and profit growth were judged slightly better than last quarter, and firms still plan to expand their payrolls as well as increase their planned fixed business investments to be better able to profit from sales growth in the future.

Below are some key highlights from the Q3 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 40% of CEOs reported the economy had improved compared to a year ago, down from 46% last quarter and 61% in the 1st quarter of 2015.
  • 27% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months, down from 35% in the prior quarter and 45% at the start of 2015.
  • 71% of CEOs expect revenue gains in the year ahead, and 56% of CEOs expect increased profits in the year ahead.
  • 34% of CEOs said recruiting and retaining staff are the most significant challenges currently facing their business, more than twice that of the next most cited issues—too slow growth (15%) and economic uncertainty (15%).

Why Vistage Works

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Concern Due To Economic Slowdown In Q2 2015

 

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available.

CEOs concerned by slowdown in economic growth.ci-q215

The 1,434 U.S. CEOs surveyed from June 8-17, 2015 in the Q2 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index expressed greater concern about the dismal pace of 1st quarter growth in the economy, and more importantly, did not anticipate the same strong rebound as occurred last year. The Vistage Confidence Index was 99.0 in the 2nd quarter of 2015, below the 1st quarter’s 105.8 and last year’s 101.0. The recent economic weakness was due to temporary factors, including a harsh winter, a port strike, and a surging dollar.

Even though most CEOs anticipate continued economic growth, there is a widespread sense that the economy is still vulnerable.  The recent decision by the Fed to hold interest rates near zero also reflected that same potential vulnerability. As a result, firms anticipated slightly less growth in their sales revenues and profits, and planned on adding slightly fewer workers to their payrolls and marginally reducing the pace of their capital investments. CEOs can be best described as cautiously optimistic.

Below are some key highlights from the Q2 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 46% of CEOs reported that the economy had improved, down from 61% in the 1st quarter.
  • 35% of CEOs anticipate an improving economy in the year ahead, down from 45% in the 1st quarter.
  • 35% of CEOs said that locating, hiring, training, and retaining staff was their most
    important task, cited twice as frequently as any other issue.
  • 46% of CEOs plan to increase investments in new plant and equipment, barely below last quarter’s 48%. Investment plans were on average more favorable during the past six quarters than any other time since the peak years of 2004-05.

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Optimism Among Small Firms At Highest Level In 3 Years In Q1 2015

 

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available.CI-graph-q115-280

Confidence among CEOs has remained higher for a longer period than at any other time in the past ten years, according to a survey of 1,541 small- to mid-sized business owners. The survey, which took place from March 9 to March 18, 2015, provides a clear snapshot of current economic, market and industry trends.

The Vistage Confidence Index was 105.8 in the 1st quarter of 2015, between the 107.5 in the 4th quarter and 101.3 in the 1st quarter of 2014. The recent survey represented the eighth consecutive year-to-year increase, a new record for the persistence of optimism. The small 1st quarter loss involved all components, although none registered a significant decline. The stability in CEOs’ confidence stands in sharp contrast to the slowdown in the pace of economic growth at year-end, which has persisted into the 1st quarter of 2015.

Below are some key highlights from the Q1 2015 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 61% of CEOs said the economy has improved in the past year – the third highest level
    since the start of 2005.
  • 45% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the next year, well above last year’s 37%.
  • 36% of CEOs said that locating, hiring, training, and retaining staff was the most significant
    business issue they are currently facing.
  • 48% of CEOs plan to increase investments in new plant and equipment, and CEOs expressed
    the most expansive investment plans during the past four quarters that any other time since 2006.
  • 77% of CEOs expect their revenues to increase in the year ahead, unchanged from last
    quarter and above last year’s 74%.

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Optimism At Highest Level In Ten Years in Q4 2014

 

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available. CI-graph-q4-280

Confidence among CEOs reached its highest level in ten years in the Q4 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey. The gain
in the closing quarter of 2014 was largely due to more favorable assessments of the current state of the economy as well as more favorable prospects for economic growth during the year ahead. The Vistage Confidence Index was 107.5 in the 4th quarter of 2014, up from 103.4 in the 3rd quarter and 101.5 in last year’s 4th quarter, and the highest level since 109.8 was recorded in the 1st quarter of 2005. The data indicate that most firms believe the economy has made substantial progress and will continue to grow in 2015.

Below are some key highlights from the Q4 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 63% of CEOs said the economy has improved in the past year–the highest since the Q4 2004 survey.
  • 49% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the next year, up from 38% in last quarter’s survey.
  • 62% of CEOs anticipated expanding their workforce in the year ahead, the highest level since 64% was recorded in Q1 2006.
  • 77% of all CEOs expected their revenues to increase in the year ahead, the highest level since 2006.
  • 62% of CEOs expected profits to increase in the year ahead.

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Optimism At A 2-Year High in Q3 2014

 

q3 (3)The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available.

Confidence among CEOs reached its highest level in two years, finally achieving a lift-off from its favorable holding pattern in the last three quarters. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 103.4 in the 3rd quarter 2014 survey, up from 101.0 in the 2nd quarter and 97.8 in last year’s 3rd quarter, and the highest level since 105.1 was recorded in the 1st quarter of 2012. There is no greater indication of confidence in future prospects than a firm’s willingness to increase their fixed investment spending and to expand their workforce. On both counts, firms reported the most expansive plans since 2006.

Below are some key highlights from the Q3 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 75% of CEOs anticipated revenue gains over the next 12 months. Only 4% anticipated declines in their revenues, the lowest ever recorded.
  • 52% of CEOs reported an improving economy, up from 50% one quarter ago and 46% one year ago.
  • 59% of CEOs anticipated increased profits in the next year, just above last quarter’s 56% and above last year’s 54%.
  • 58% of CEOs planned to increased their workforce, while just 4% planned reductions.

Elisa K. Spain

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Hiring Is A Top Concern in Q2 2014

Vistage CEO Confidence Index: Hiring Is A Top Concern in Q2 2014

q2 2014

The quarterly Vistage Confidence Index is now available.

The latest Vistage survey found that CEOs continued to feel confident about today’s economy, as the Vistage CEO Confidence Index was virtually unchanged from the levels recorded in the prior two quarters. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 101.0 in the 2nd quarter 2014 survey, nearly identical with the 101.3 in the 1st quarter and the 101.5 in the 4th quarter of 2013. This was the best three-quarter performance since 2005. The constancy of economic optimism is all the more surprising given the drop in GDP during the 1st quarter, indicating that CEOs discounted last quarter’s decline as an aberration due to the harsh winter.

Below are some key highlights from the Q2 2014 Vistage CEO Confidence Index (all members surveyed):

  • 73% of CEOs expect increased revenues over the next 12 months.
  • 57% of CEOs planned on expanding their payrolls, just below last quarter’s 58%, which was the highest level since the start of 2007.
  • 30% of CEOs report that hiring new staff is the top business issue that they now face.
  • 46% of CEOs plan increases in investments in new plant and equipment.

Elisa K. Spain