Vistage Confidence Index | Elisa K. Spain

Q3 2018 Confidence Index: Optimism Dips

October 21, 2018October 9, 2019 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

The Q3 Vistage CEO Confidence Index – Economic confidence among CEOs continues its slow decline, according to the Q3 2018 Vistage CEO Confidence Index.

The survey of 1,484 leaders of small and midsize businesses shows confidence decreasing from the 14-year peak set in late 2017, following the passage of the tax cut legislation. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 103 in the Q3 2018, reversing the entire gain recorded in the past three quarters.

Most of the recent decline was due to an anticipated slowdown in economic growth, as well as a slight decline in revenue and profit expectations. Important to note, however, that CEOs’ expectations for revenues and profits were still quite robust.

Q3 2018 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights for the Chicago Area:

15% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 25% nationally)
47% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 50% nationally)
68% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 75% nationally)
56% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 63% nationally)
55% of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 64% nationally)
60% of CEOs expect rising proﬁts in the year ahead (vs. 61% nationally)

On November 14, my Vistage CEO group is hosting one of our semi-annual guest days. If you or someone you know would like to learn more about Vistage, this is a low-key way to meet our members and listen to one of our top speakers, Andrea Simon who asks “Who will be your customers in three years?” Please contact me directly for an invite: Elisa K Spain.

For more about the members of the group click here

For more about the speaker on November 14, click here

You can read more of my blogs and leadership quotes here.

Elisa Spain

elisaspain.com

What Are CEO’s Most Concerned About Today?

August 19, 2018August 18, 2018 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Entering the second half of 2018, Vistage Research compiled a report summarizing the key concerns CEO’s face today. This report draws on data from the Vistage Q2 CEO Confidence Index report and a team of expert economists. Here are the five key areas of concern:

Cost pressures broadening and growing stronger
Talent shortage goes critical
Taxes, trade and tariffs translate to trouble
Cyberattacks are the silent killer of SMBs
A recession is inevitable

Beginning in September, this blog will address each of these concerns in turn. Meanwhile here is the complete report for your consideration Decision factors: H2 2018 – Economic considerations for SMB executives,

Are You a CEO or President of a Privately Held Business? If you are also a lifetime learner, click here to learn more.

Elisa K Spain

#Strategy
#Vistage Confidence Index

Elisa Spain

elisaspain.com

Vistage Confidence Index Chicago Update

May 13, 2018May 4, 2018 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

As reported earlier in April, CEOs nationally continue to voice optimism about their future financial prospects and plan to increase their investments and expand their labor force. Although the Vistage CEO Confidence Index retreated from the decade high recorded at year-end 2017, it remains quite favorable.

Here in Chicago, while CEO’s are still confident, expectations are a bit lower than nationally.

Below are Chicago Area Survey Highlights for Q1 2018 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Survey.

30% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 35% nationally)

47% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 51% nationally)

76% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 79% nationally)

52% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 64% nationally)

52% of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 62% nationally)

58% of CEOs expect rising profits in the year ahead (vs. 66% nationally)

Here is a link to the full report.

Q1 2018 Confidence Index: CEO Confidence Index Slips in 2018

April 8, 2018April 6, 2018 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

The Q1 Vistage CEO Confidence Index – The confidence of CEOs from small and midsize businesses (SMBs) has slipped in the past quarter but remains high, according to new data from Vistage.

The Vistage CEO Confidence Index measured 105.8 in Q1 2018. By comparison, the index was 110.3 last quarter (Q4 2017) and 106.8 one year ago (Q1 2017). The Q1 2018 survey had 1,712 respondents.

To calculate the index, researchers account for factors including CEO opinions on current economic conditions, expected economic conditions, expected changes in employment, planned fixed investments, expected revenue growth and expected profit growth. The index has a strong track record of predicting GDP growth.

In his analysis of the results, Dr. Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan expressed a positive outlook. “Although the Vistage CEO Confidence Index retreated from the decade high recorded at year-end 2017, it still remains quite favorable,” he said. “The decline in confidence was mainly due to a moderation in the pace of growth expected for the national economy during the year ahead.”

Q1 2018 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

62% of CEOs said the economy had recently improved, a decline from last quarter’s 66%.
35% of CEOs expected the economy to post additional gains during the year ahead, down 10 points from 45% last quarter.
64% of CEOs planned to expand their workforce in the year ahead.
79% of CEOs expected increased revenues in the year ahead.
66% of CEOs expected increased profits in the year ahead.
54% of CEOs expect to increase investment expenditures in the next year.

Q4 2017 Confidence Index: CEO Optimism Surges to Decade Peak

February 4, 2018February 2, 2018 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

The Q4 Vistage CEO Confidence Index was nearly equal to the second and third quarters of 2017, suggesting that optimism among small business CEOs has stabilized.

Q4 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

66% of CEOs of CEOs said the economy had recently improved, a significant increase from last quarter’s52%.
45% of CEOs expect the economy to post additional gains during the year ahead, up 13 points from 32% last quarter.
71% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead.
83% of CEOs expect increased revenues in the year ahead.
67% of CEOs expect increased profits in the year ahead.
54% of CEOs expect to increase investment expenditures in the next year.

Chicago Area Survey Highlights:

37% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 45% nationally)
46% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 54% nationally)
83% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 83% nationally)
70% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 71% nationally)
59% of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 66% nationally)
62% of CEOs expect rising proﬁts in the year ahead (vs. 67% nationally)

Q3 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Results

November 12, 2017November 6, 2017 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

The Q3 Vistage CEO Confidence Index was nearly equal to the second and third quarters of 2017, suggesting that optimism among small business CEOs has stabilized.

Q2 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

52% of CEOs said the economy had recently improved, slightly below last quarter’s 55% but more than twice last year’s 25%.
32% of CEOs expect the economy to post additional gains during the year ahead, down from 38% last quarter.
62% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead.
77% of CEOs expect increased revenues in the year ahead.
62% of CEOs expect increased profits in the year ahead.
47% of CEOs expect to increase investment expenditures in the next year.

Chicago Area Survey Highlights:

28% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 32% nationally)
38% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 47% nationally)
64% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 77% nationally)
54% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 62% nationally)
50% of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 52% nationally)
55% of CEOs expect rising proﬁts in the year ahead (vs. 62% nationally)

Q2 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Results

August 13, 2017August 11, 2017 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Q2 Confidence Index

The Vistage Confidence Index was 103.1 in the second quarter, down from 106.9 in the 1st quarter but still well above last year’s 88.0.

Q2 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

55% of CEOs reported that economy had recently improved, slightly below last quarter’s 59% but more than twice last year’s 21%.
Only 38% expected continued improvement, down from 57% last quarter and 58% in Q4 2016, but higher than 20% in Q2 2016.
60% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead. The majority 62% indicate that they were having trouble finding and hiring workers.
48% of CEOs are planning for increased investments in plant and equipment.
73% of expect increased revenue, down from 77% in Q1 and 78% in Q4 2016.

Chicago Area Survey Highlights:

28% of CEOs expect the economy to improve in the year ahead (vs. 38% nationally)
44% of CEOs expect to increase investments in the year ahead (vs. 48% nationally)
63% of CEOs expect to increase revenue in the year ahead (vs. 73% nationally)
57% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the next year (vs. 61% nationally)
51% of CEOs thought the national economy had improved in the past year (vs. 55% nationally)
57% of CEOs expect rising proﬁts in the year ahead (vs. 60% nationally)

Q2 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Results: Strong and Steady

July 23, 2017July 21, 2017 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Q2 Confidence Index

CEOs of small and mid-sized companies remain confident in the economy and their business prospects, according to the latest reading of the Vistage CEO Confidence Index. The index measured 106.9 in the first quarter of 2017, a slight increase from the 105.2 measured last quarter (Q4 2016) but well above the 91.4 reading from the previous quarter (Q3 2016).

Other highlights from the quarterly survey include the following:

CEOs predict continued economic growth

According to the majority of CEOs surveyed, the economy has started to rebound and shows signs of continued growth in the year ahead.

Q2 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

Fifty-nine percent of CEOs reported that the economy had recently improved, compared to 42% last quarter and 27% one year ago. The outlook for the economy was the same as last quarter, with 57% of CEOs stating that they expect the economy to continue to grow in the next 12 months.
Forty-seven percent of firms said they expected to increase their investment spending in the next year. “There is no clearer indication of an improved economic outlook than the fact that CEOs have become more willing to invest in new productive capacity in anticipation of greater future sales increases,” said Dr. Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan.
Sixty percent of CEOs said they planned to expand their total number of employees in the next 12 months. About 32% said they would increase their hiring steadily over the year. The survey respondents also expressed the most positive net-employment intentions in the past 10 years.
Similar to last quarter, 77% of CEOs say that they expect revenue gains this year. Coupled with last quarter’s 78%, this represents the most positive revenue expectation in the past 10 years.

Q1 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Results: CEO Economic Confidence Reigns

April 2, 2017May 2, 2017 by Elisa Spain Comment Closed

Q1 2017 Confidence Index

A rebound in CEOs’ perceptions of economic growth combined with a more favorable outlook for the economy has created a new optimism. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index was 106.9 in the 1st quarter 2017 survey, slightly above the 105.2 in last quarter’s survey, and well above the 3rd quarter reading of 91.4. Although the surge in optimism has thus far only restored confidence to the highs recorded following the Great Recession, the return of optimism to the highs of the past few years has meant that CEOs anticipate favorable trends in their revenues and profits.

Q1 2017 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

Economic growth rebounds. 57% of CEOs expect the economy to post additional gains during the year ahead, more than twice the 23% who expected improvement a year ago.
Robust hiring plans. 60% of all CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead.
Record revenues and profits. 77% of CEOs expect increased revenue, and 64% expect increased profits in the year ahead.
Strong investment spending. 47% of CEOs expect to increase investment expenditures in the next year, barely below the decade peak of 49% set in the closing quarter of 2014.

Q4 2016 Vistage CEO Confidence Index Results: CEO Optimism Surges

January 15, 2017January 13, 2017 by Elisa SpainNo Comments

CEOs expressed record increases in optimism about economic prospects following the election. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index jumped to 105.2 in the Q4 survey, up from 91.4 in the 3rd quarter, and the second-largest increase since 2003.

The expected upsurge in business prospects have given a new urgency to finding, hiring, training, and retaining employees. This was the most significant and challenging issue voiced by CEOs in the latest survey. More than one-third of all firms expressed staffing and talent management as both their most significant current issue as well as their biggest challenge for 2017. Increases in investments and hiring represent a degree of confidence in the new president’s economic policies.

Q4 2016 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

58% of CEOs expected the economy to improve during the year ahead, more than twice the 22% recorded in the 3rd quarter.
47% of CEOs plan to increase investments in the year ahead, reaching the highest level since the start of 2015.
60% of CEOs plan to expand their workforce in the year ahead, the most positive net employment intentions in ten years.
78% of CEOs expect revenue gains in the year ahead, up from 64% last quarter, and the most positive revenue expectation in the past ten years.